Copper market

Copper for the energy transition

Copper is pivoting from surplus to structural deficit as electrification, grid build-out and AI-driven data-center demand accelerate - while new mine supply struggles to keep pace. The market thesis behind Northern Discovery, drawn from the 2026 corporate presentation.

Copper market

A structural pivot from surplus to deficit

Copper has moved to record price levels as the refined market flips from surplus to deficit, with concentrate supply becoming the binding constraint.

$11,771 Record LME price per tonne (Dec 8, 2025)
150 kt Forecast 2026 refined market deficit
0.9% 2026 refined output growth vs. 2.1% demand
  • Copper set an all-time high of $11,771/t in December 2025; Goldman Sachs forecasts roughly $10,000-$11,000/t through 2026 and $15,000/t by 2035.
  • The refined market is flipping from a 178 kt surplus in 2025 to a projected 150 kt deficit in 2026 as concentrate supply becomes the binding constraint.
  • Mine production grew just 1.4% in 2025 - revised down from an earlier 2.3% estimate - while refined output growth slows to 0.9% in 2026 against 2.1% demand growth.
  • BMI expects persistent structural deficits to push copper toward $17,000/t over the next decade.

Sources Goldman Sachs Research · ICSG via The Oregon Group · BMI via Mining.com

Demand — electrification

Electrification is the structural demand driver

Clean-energy technologies are set to dominate incremental copper demand, with EVs, renewables, storage and transmission all far more copper-intensive than the systems they replace.

25% → 61% Clean-energy share of copper demand, 2024 to 2040
~53 kg Copper per EV — about 2.4× a combustion vehicle
15.7 Mt Energy-transition copper demand by 2040
  • Clean-energy technologies are projected to rise from about 25% of copper demand in 2024 to roughly 61% by 2040.
  • The IEA projects total copper demand up about 30% from 2024 to 2040 (STEPS); S&P Global sees demand rising ~50% to 42 Mt by 2040.
  • Energy-transition uses - EVs, battery storage, renewables and transmission - account for 15.7 Mt of projected 2040 demand.
  • An EV uses ~53 kg of copper (about 2.4× a combustion vehicle), and wind and solar generation require 2.5-7× more copper than fossil-fuel technologies.
  • Grid and power infrastructure alone is expected to drive more than 60% of copper demand growth through 2030, as global electricity demand climbs ~50% by 2040.

Sources Sprott · IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 · S&P Global

Supply outlook

Supply cannot keep pace: a widening gap

Mined supply from announced projects falls well short of projected demand, and structural constraints plus new demand vectors compound the shortfall.

~30% Implied 2035 supply deficit vs. demand (STEPS)
10 Mt Projected 2040 shortfall — ~25% below demand
2030 Year mine output is projected to peak (33 Mt)
  • The IEA finds that mined supply from announced projects falls about 30% short of projected demand by 2035 under its STEPS scenario.
  • S&P Global projects mine output peaking near 33 Mt in 2030, leaving a 10 Mt shortfall - roughly 25% below demand - by 2040.
  • About 10 Mt of additional primary supply would be needed by 2040 to close the gap - the equivalent of building many new large-scale mines.
  • Structural constraints compound the shortfall: declining ore grades, rising project costs, and a sharp slowdown in new resource discoveries.
  • New demand vectors intensify the squeeze: AI/data centers and defense together add roughly 4 Mt by 2040, with each vector expected to about triple.

Sources IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 · S&P Global · STEPS = IEA Stated Policies Scenario

North America — electrification

North America must secure its own copper

The United States is increasingly import-dependent as data-center and grid demand accelerates - positioning Canada, and copper projects like Vent, as strategic domestic supply.

45% Share of US copper consumption met by net imports, 2024
25 → 106 GW US data-center power demand, 2024 to 2035
514,582 t Canada's copper production in 2024
  • The US relied on net imports for 45% of its copper consumption in 2024 - up from 41% in 2023 - even as domestic mine output fell 3% to about 1.1 Mt.
  • Electrifying the grid is copper-intensive, and US data-center power demand alone is projected to climb from ~25 GW in 2024 to 106 GW by 2035.
  • The US Department of Energy estimates ~100 GW of additional peak capacity is needed by 2030 - roughly half from data centers - all requiring copper-heavy transmission and distribution.
  • Copper used in data centres is expected to rise sixfold between now and 2050 as AI and electrification scale across the continent.
  • Canada is the nearest scalable supply - producing 514,582 t of copper in 2024 with ~8.3 Mt of reserves (~1% of the global total) - positioning it as a strategic partner for US electrification.

Sources USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · BloombergNEF & U.S. DOE via Utility Dive · Export Development Canada · Canada Action

Positioned for the deficit

A 100%-controlled copper project for a copper-short decade

Northern Discovery is advancing the road-accessible Vent Copper Project in British Columbia's Alberni Mining District - domestic North American copper for the energy transition.

The Vent Copper Project Investor information

Note: figures on this page are third-party forecasts and estimates, shown for market context only, and are subject to change. STEPS refers to the IEA Stated Policies Scenario.